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«  Август 2009  »

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Kyiv, August 5 (Interfax-Ukraine) –Fuel market experts have said that it is possible that there will be a further rise in the price of fuel in Ukraine in August.

"August will be stable or show a slight rise," an expert on the fuel market, Leonid Kosianchuk, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.

He said that surplus fuel stocks in the United States encourages price falls, although instability in Nigeria (political disorder) could neutralize this.

The director of the A-85 consulting group, Serhiy Kuyun, said that from the start of August, the retail market began to be affected by the rise in global prices of oil and fuel seen in the second half of July.

"In the second half of July [from July 13 to July 31] the price of Russian oil grew from $60 to $70 per barrel, and the price of A-95 petrol went up from $568 to $699 per tonne, while the price of diesel fuel grew from $470 to $556 per tonne. However, compared to early July, the prices rose only slightly, and the smooth start of the price growth is inked to this," the expert said.

Kuyun said that the first half of August would see pressure from the abovementioned growth in prices in second half of July, when contracts for oil that is coming to the market now were signed.

He also noted that the price of Ukrainian-made fuel has grown swiftly due to strong demand.

Kosianchuk said that at present, the key price formation factor is the instability of the Ukrainian currency.

Kuyun agreed that the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar impacts the prices of fuel.

"The new wave of hryvnia devaluation is not so critical to speculate on this, but there is pressure on the price in any case. It's enough to say that 50 kopecks in the dollar exchange rate equals to some 12-14 kopecks in one liter of petrol. We have the approximate rise in the dollar exchange rate, and its impact would be seen in the next two or three weeks," the specialist said.

Kosianchuk did not name the price range for the price fluctuation, adding that if the hryvnia exchange rate fell, fuel prices would grow.

He also said that there is no information on some figures that are needed to predict fuel price fluctuations.

"We don't know what the GDP fall really is... we don't know the deficit of the budget," he said.

Kuyun said that the price of A-95 petrol could grow to UAH 6-85-6.95 per liter due to the hryvnia's appreciation to the dollar.

"It's difficult to name the exact rise, as many things would depend on the policy of  Privat Group, a large player on the market, which does not always reacts to external irritants, as it is able to buy Ukrainian oil at a stable low price at auctions," the expert said.

Kosianchuk said that the Privat Group's policy, which often sells light fuel at cheaper prices is negative for the market.

He aid that if large Ukrainian chains do not sell low-quality fuel as it would affect their business and image, single filling stations could make these steps to optimize their expenses.

Commenting on trends on the European fuel market, Kuyun said that it is very unstable.

He said that in late July there were fears that the market would overheat and prices would fall under the pressure of surplus stocks.

"However, three days of fall were replaced by a new wave of rises fueled by news on the global economic recovery. Many analysts of the energy market continue saying that the current prices of oil of around $70 per barrel are not in line with the state of the international economy and the low demand for fuel," he said.

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