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10:16
BELARUSIAN GDP PROJECTED TO GROW 8%-9% IN 2010 IN NEW FORECAST – SOURCE

Minsk, July 29 (Interfax) - The Belarusian economy is projected to expand 8%-9% in 2010 in a new forecast the government is preparing for the country's socioeconomic development, a source from a state agency told Interfax.

The source said the forecast for GDP growth in 2010 is contained in a socioeconomic development program for the period 2006-2010 that was approved in late 2005. This document is still in effect and defines the annual parameters of the government's forecast.

"The official forecast for 2010 will be extremely close to the numbers in the five-year program for 2006-2010. This program will not be reviewed," the source said, noting that President Alexander Lukashenko stressed at a recent meeting that the five-year program must remain in effect.

Given that economic growth surpassed some of the parameters in previous years, the 2010 growth rates could by 1-2 percentage points lower than what was planned in the program and total 6%-7% or 7%-8%, the source said.

While the draft version of the socioeconomic development program was being prepared, the Economics Ministry considered a pessimistic scenario under which GDP would grow 2%-3% in 2010, however this scenario was not officially submitted to the government.

Economics Minister Nikolai Zaichenko has predicted Belarus will not see an economic decline in 2009. He said GDP will grow 0%-2% in 2009 and 0%-5% in 2010.

Belarusian GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in the first half of 2009 from 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009 and 10% in 2008. The forecast for 2009 envisions growth of 10%-12% and has yet to be adjusted. The International Monetary Fund expects Belarusian GDP to decline 3.4% in 2009.

The ministry has also predicted inflation will be lower than the initially expected 11% in 2009. Inflation was 7.3% in the first half of 2009.

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